Demographic transition is a term, first used by Warren S. Thompson (1929), and later on by Frank W. Notestein (1945), referring to a historical process of change that accounts for the trends in births, deaths, and population growth that occurred in today’s industrialized societies, especially European societies. This process of demographic change began for the most part in the later 18th century.
The demographic transition should not be regarded as a ‘law of population growth but as a generalized description of the evolutionary process. In simple terms, it is a theory that attempts to specify general laws by which human populations change in size and structure during industrialization. It is frequently accepted as a useful tool in describing the demographic history of a country.
The theory postulates a particular pattern of demographic change from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality when society progresses from a largely rural agrarian and illiterate society to a dominant urban, industrial, literate and modern society.
The model has four stages:
pre-industrial,
urbanizing/industrializing,
mature industrial, and
post-industrial.
The theory of demographic transition deals with the transition from high to low birth rates and death rates.
These stages of demographic transition can be explained with the help of diagram 3 given below:
Stage I is characterised by a high birth rate, death rate, and low rate of population growth.
The first stage of demographic transition is characterized by high birth rates and high death rates.
The first stage of demographic transition was experienced in India, during the period of1891-1921.
Stage II is characterised by a high and stationary birth rate, rapidly declining death rate, and very rapid increase in population.
India entered Stage II after 1921.
Stage III is characterised by a falling birth rate, low and stationary death rate, and a rapidly rising population.
Stage IV is characterised by a low birth rate and low death rate with a stationary population at a low level.
The demographic transition theory studies the relationship between economic development and population growth.
These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle.
There are four stages of demographic transition related to the state of economic development.
It discusses changes in birth rate and death rate and consequently growth rate of population in assonance with the process of growth and development.
It is also used to describe and predict the future population of any area.
The theory tells us that the population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses from the rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society.
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